Welcome to the May 2025 edition of the Duplo Economic Digest — your monthly pulse check on Nigeria’s financial and business landscape. This month’s theme captures it all: cautious optimism, hard-hitting realities, and opportunities peeking through the cracks.
Nigeria Macroeconomic Recap
Nigeria’s bid to balance economic recovery with long-term energy self-sufficiency
Tinubu requests permission to borrow $21.5 billion: President Bola Tinubu has formally requested the Nigerian National Assembly’s approval for a new external borrowing plan totalling about $21.5 billion, along with €2.2 billion, ¥15 billion, and a €65 million grant, as part of the 2025–2026 fiscal borrowing framework. This borrowing plan is designed to finance critical projects across multiple sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, health, education, water supply, security, employment generation, and financial reforms, aiming to stimulate economic growth, create jobs, reduce poverty, promote skill acquisition, and enhance food security nationwide.
The plan is a rolling borrowing framework covering federal and several state governments over two years, not an immediate borrowing request, with actual disbursements phased according to project timelines. The President emphasised the necessity of external borrowing due to declining domestic funding and the economic impact following the removal of the fuel subsidy. Additionally, Tinubu sought approval for issuing a domestic bond worth approximately ₦758 billion to clear outstanding pension liabilities.
Nigeria no longer Africa’s largest petrol importer: Nigeria has lost its status as Africa’s biggest fuel importer due to the significant boost in domestic fuel production from the Dangote mega-refinery. The refinery, which has a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, began ramping up operations in 2024. This development has reduced Nigeria’s need to import fuel, a shift from its previous practice of exporting crude oil to Europe for processing and then importing refined fuel. As a result, South Africa has now become the continent’s most prominent fuel importer, partly because its operational fuel-making capacity has declined, according to a consultancy.
Shutdown at the Port-Harcourt Refinery: The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) has announced a planned maintenance shutdown of the Port Harcourt Refining Company (PHRC) starting May 24, 2025. This shutdown is for scheduled maintenance and a sustainability assessment, and NNPC is coordinating with relevant regulatory authorities to ensure the process is efficient and transparent.
The Port Harcourt refinery consists of two units with a combined capacity of 210,000 barrels per day, but has not operated at full capacity for over two decades. The refinery was previously shut down in 2019 for repairs, with significant upgrades approved in 2021 and mechanical completion announced in December 2023. NNPC has pledged to provide regular updates and remains committed to delivering sustainable energy for Nigeria
Finance Flashback
CBN steadies the ship with a rate hold, diaspora-focused reforms, and a return to profitability
CBN holds interest rate: The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) held its benchmark interest rate steady at 27.5% during its May 2025 policy meeting, marking the second consecutive pause this year. The decision was unanimous among the Monetary Policy Committee members, who cited recent improvements in key macroeconomic indicators, including a slowdown in inflation.
Headline inflation eased to 23.71% in April from 24.23% in March, with month-on-month inflation and food inflation also declining. Policymakers adopted a wait-and-see approach to better assess near-term economic developments amid ongoing inflationary and foreign exchange pressures, a recent drop in oil prices, and naira weakness.
CBN launches the Non-Resident Bank Verification Number (NRBVN): The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in partnership with the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), has launched a new digital platform called the Non-Resident Bank Verification Number (NRBVN) to enable Nigerians living abroad to obtain a BVN without travelling to Nigeria. The platform also supports remittance services through international gateways, covering 38 countries, and allows account opening with 27 Nigerian banks.
The CBN hopes the new system will increase remittance inflows, which rose from $3.3 billion in 2023 to $4.73 billion in 2024, and is targeting $1 billion monthly. The NRBVN platform features strict verification, compliance with anti-money laundering standards, and robust security measures. It is expected to benefit individuals, banks, and the country by making onboarding faster, enhancing financial inclusion, and encouraging foreign investment.
CBN makes a profit in 2024: The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reported a profit in 2024 after recording a significant loss of ₦1.2 trillion in 2023. The turnaround was driven by improved foreign exchange management, higher income from interest on government securities, and increased earnings from its foreign reserves. The CBN attributed the previous year’s loss to foreign exchange losses, higher operating expenses, and the impact of the naira’s devaluation. In 2024, the bank implemented reforms to strengthen its financial position, including tighter monetary policy and enhanced oversight of the financial sector. These measures helped stabilise the naira and boost investor confidence.
NGX Performance
NGX hits a historic high as strong investor confidence, rising foreign inflows, and robust earnings fueled a bullish momentum
In May 2025, the Nigerian stock market demonstrated strong performance, reaching a historic high with the NSE All-Share Index peaking around 109,898 points. Over the month, the index gained approximately 4.85%, reflecting sustained investor confidence and positive market momentum. Market capitalisation also grew significantly, supported by increased trading activity and robust participation from domestic and foreign investors.
Transaction volumes surged, with total market transactions hitting record levels in the first four months of 2025, driven by a 43% increase compared to the previous year. Foreign portfolio investments notably rose, accounting for over one-third of market transactions, a substantial jump from about one-seventh in 2024, highlighting growing international interest in Nigerian equities.
Consumer goods and banking stocks showed resilience, while some volatility was observed in the oil and gas sectors. Key stocks such as UBA, Zenith Bank, and Dangote Cement contributed to market gains, with dividend declarations and corporate earnings supporting positive sentiment. Overall, May 2025 marked a continuation of the bullish trend seen earlier in the year, underpinned by economic reforms, improved corporate profits, and increased foreign investment inflows.
Investment Opportunities
- FCMB commercial paper issuance:
- Short-term debt paper
- No fixed minimum or maximum offering size
- Access Bank share issuance (Rights Issue): Access Bank seeks to raise 17.77 billion ordinary shares at ₦19.75/share, raising about ₦351 billion.
FX Performance
Significant currencies record mixed experiences driven by local context
In May 2025, the Nigerian naira experienced a complex trajectory in both the official and parallel markets, reflecting a blend of strengthening signals and underlying depreciation pressures. While the currency showed moments of resilience, the broader trend leaned towards depreciation, shaped by lingering foreign exchange (FX) supply constraints and broader macroeconomic volatility.
At the official market, the naira initially showed signs of appreciation, strengthening from over ₦1,610 to below ₦1,580 by the end of the month. This positive movement was attributed to renewed investor interest, strong participation in Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) FX auctions, a rebound in crude oil prices, and a consistent monetary policy stance by the apex bank, all of which helped stabilize market sentiment. However, week-on-week performance tells a more cautious story, with the naira still weakening by ₦5.17 in this segment.
In the parallel (black) market, the naira fluctuated around ₦1,600 for much of the month, reaching about ₦1,625 per dollar by mid-May. This reflected ongoing pressure on the currency despite signs of relative calm. On a weekly basis, the naira depreciated by ₦13 in this segment. The narrowing gap between the official and parallel rates points to some success in CBN’s efforts to unify the FX market and direct more flows through official channels.
These trends unfolded against a backdrop of regional currency volatility. The Kenyan shilling softened slightly, weakening by around 1% in 2025 so far, while the Zambian kwacha also lost ground. In contrast, the Moroccan dirham and Kenyan shilling are projected to benefit from reform-led resilience, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).
The AfDB, in its 2025 economic outlook, highlighted that several African currencies, including the naira and Ghanaian cedi, remain vulnerable to external pressures, projecting an average depreciation of about 6% across the continent’s currencies. The outlook underscores the importance of structural reforms, improved FX supply, and credible monetary policy in managing currency risk.
Outlook for June 2025
The performance of the naira in June will largely depend on two key factors:
- Crude oil prices, which directly influence Nigeria’s FX reserves and dollar inflows
- CBN’s ability to manage inflation and exchange rate expectations, especially as the government continues to tackle macroeconomic imbalances
With external pressures expected to persist, proactive policy measures and improved FX liquidity will be critical in steering the naira towards a more stable path in the coming months
Company Focus – SEPLAT
Nigeria’s very own is steadily taking Nigeria’s oil and gas sector by storm
Seplat Energy is a leading Nigerian independent oil and gas company, founded in 2009 and headquartered in Lagos, with listings on the Nigerian and London Stock Exchanges. The company has grown rapidly through strategic acquisitions and operates across 11 oil and gas blocks in the Niger Delta, focusing on both crude oil and natural gas production. In December 2024, Seplat completed a landmark acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU) from ExxonMobil, significantly expanding its reserves, production capacity, and operational footprint.
In May 2025, Seplat announced significant strategic developments, including expanding into Nigeria’s power sector with plans to deliver modular, off-grid power solutions to underserved communities and focusing on gas-to-power systems for rural electrification. Seplat’s CEO, Roger Brown, highlighted the company’s transformation following its acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU), which doubled Seplat’s oil and gas production and reserves, expanded its operational footprint to 11 blocks, and significantly increased its workforce prominent in the news primarily due to the transformative impact of this MPNU acquisition. The deal doubled Seplat’s oil and gas reserves, increased its daily production from around 50,000 to over 120,000 barrels, and expanded its workforce to about 1,500 professionals, most Nigerians.
This acquisition positioned Seplat as a key player in Nigeria’s energy sector, with an integrated value chain and enhanced capacity to drive domestic energy access, industrialisation, and economic resilience. Seplat’s leadership outlined ambitious plans to leverage its expanded gas resources for domestic power generation and industrial use, and to introduce modular, off-grid power solutions for underserved communities, reinforcing its commitment to Nigeria’s energy autonomy and sustainable development.
Company Focus – CBN
Nigeria’s APEX bank, leading by example
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is the country’s apex monetary authority responsible for maintaining economic stability, managing Nigeria’s currency and external reserves, and supervising the financial system. In May, the bank announced it has returned to profitability after running at a loss ₦1.2 trillion in 2023, primarily due to foreign exchange losses, high operating expenses, and the adverse effects of the naira’s devaluation.
However, thanks to improved foreign exchange management, higher earnings from interest on government securities, and better returns on its foreign reserves, the bank has now turned a progit. This financial turnaround reflects the effectiveness of reforms aimed at stabilising the naira and strengthening the banking sector.
The CBN’s profit in 2024 signals enhanced financial stability and increased investor confidence, which are critical for Nigeria’s broader economic recovery. It also positions the central bank to support monetary policy objectives better, promote sustainable growth, and foster a more resilient financial system that effectively backs government initiatives and economic development.
Africa Focus
AfDB kicks off a new dawn, but is it enough to withstand the external shocks Africa is vulnerable to?
Sidi Ould Tah Elected President of African Development Bank: Sidi Ould Tah, former Finance Minister of Mauritania, has been elected president of the African Development Bank (AfDB), succeeding Nigeria’s Akinwumi Adesina, who steps down in September after completing two terms. Tah assumes leadership at a time of growing economic strain across the continent. The United States has announced a $555 million cut to its contributions to the African Development Fund, the concessional arm of the AfDB that supports over 30 of the continent’s poorest countries. Meanwhile, Africa faces a structural financing gap of more than $400 billion annually, or roughly 14% of projected GDP by 2030. The AfDB itself recently lowered its 2025 growth forecast, citing global trade tensions and reduced investor appetite. Tah’s presidency will be critical in helping the bank navigate these challenges, mobilise capital, and deepen investment in infrastructure and climate resilience across Africa.
South Africa’s Central Bank Cuts Rates, Signals Shift to Lower Inflation Target: On May 29, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) made a surprise 25bps rate cut to 7.25%, with unanimous backing from its Monetary Policy Committee. The decision aligns with SARB’s growing preference for a lower inflation target, potentially moving from the current 4.5% to 3%. The SARB released modelling showing that while growth may slow initially under a 3% inflation target due to higher real interest rates, longer-term prospects improve as rates ease. Finance ministry approval is still required, but discussions are said to be at an advanced stage.
IMF revises Angola’s growth downwards: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered Angola’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 2.4%, down from an earlier projection of 3%. This revision follows an assessment mission to Luanda, mainly due to falling oil prices and tighter external financing conditions, posing risks to Angola’s fiscal stability. Angola’s economy had rebounded strongly in 2024, with GDP growth reaching 4.4%, but the outlook for 2025 has deteriorated. Inflation remains high but is expected to decline gradually.
The IMF noted that the Angolan government is committed to managing emerging risks and implementing measures to maintain macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, while protecting vulnerable groups and supporting growth. The IMF’s revised forecast for Angola is below the regional average for sub-Saharan Africa and other oil exporters, and the findings will be discussed by the IMF board in July 2025.
African countries at indirect risk of US tariff: Moody’s has indicated that sub-Saharan African banks are unlikely to be directly affected by U.S. import tariffs, but they face significant indirect risks due to the impact of these tariffs on China’s economy, which is a major trading partner and consumer of African commodities. The tariffs have contributed to a slowdown in China’s economic growth, reducing demand for African exports such as minerals and oil, lowering export volumes and prices.
This decline affects African banks by reducing trade-finance fees and potentially limiting their ability to issue new loans. China’s manufacturing activity index recently fell to its lowest in 16 months, reflecting these economic pressures. The International Monetary Fund has cut China’s growth forecast to 4% for 2025 and 2026, signalling weaker demand ahead. Additionally, increased investor risk aversion linked to the tariffs may widen dollar-bond spreads, raising refinancing costs for African banks that rely on wholesale hard currency funding. These “second-round effects” from the U.S.-China trade tensions thus pose a notable challenge to African banks through slower commodity demand and higher funding costs, despite the banks not being direct targets of the tariffs themselves.
Upcoming events in June
- Fintech Festival Tanzania
Dar es Salaam
12-13 June - Africa Digital Finance Summit
South Africa
18-20 June - Fintech Summit Africa
NH Hotel Santon, Joburg, South Africa
25 – 26 June
