Welcome to the April 2025 edition of the Duplo Economic Digest — your monthly pulse check on Nigeria’s financial and business landscape. This month’s theme captures it all: cautious optimism, hard-hitting realities, and opportunities peeking through the cracks.
Nigeria Macroeconomic Recap
Nigeria seems to be on the right path but Nigerians are worse off
IMF applauds Nigeria for economic reforms: The IMF concluded its 2025 Article IV mission to Nigeria in April, noting that recent reforms (stopping central bank deficit financing, removing fuel subsidies, improving FX market) have helped stabilize the economy. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to global risks and lower oil prices, and the IMF urged Nigeria to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation and build fiscal buffers.
World Bank projects improved growth for Nigeria: The World Bank’s Africa Pulse report projects Nigeria’s GDP to grow 3.6% in 2025, up from 3.4% in 2024, assuming reforms sustain. This is more optimistic than the IMF’s forecast of 3.0% growth. The World Bank cites improved performance in non-oil sectors (finance, telecom, IT) and easing inflation for the brighter outlook.
The World Bank approves yet another loan: Nigeria secured international support to finance reforms. During the Spring Meetings, the World Bank approved a $2.25 billion loan to bolster Nigeria’s reform agenda. This funding will help the government meet budget needs and strengthen human capital development. The CBN Governor also highlighted growing investor confidence – citing a high-level investment forum in New York – as a sign that reforms are attracting global capital and diaspora interest in Nigeria.
Nigeria accounts for 15% of the world’s poorest: The World Bank’s report revealed Nigeria accounts for 19% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s extremely poor population (~106 million people), about 15% of the world’s poorest. It warned Nigeria’s poverty rate could reach 56% by 2027 without urgent action. In response, the Nigerian government – represented by Finance Minister Wale Edun – outlined plans for 7% GDP growth driven by infrastructure (digital networks) and revenue mobilization, while business groups (NACCIMA) urged more pragmatic policies to tackle inflation, youth unemployment, and fiscal deficits fueling poverty.
Nigeria Records $6.83 Billion BoP Surplus in 2024: Nigeria posted a $6.83 billion balance of payments (BoP) surplus in 2024 — a sharp turnaround from deficits exceeding $3.3 billion in 2022 and 2023. According to the CBN, this reflects early gains from reforms like petrol subsidy removal and FX rate unification. The surplus helped boost external reserves to $40.2 billion.
Key drivers included reduced imports (–16.7% to $39.8bn), increased portfolio inflows ($13.35bn, more than double 2023), and strong diaspora remittances ($20.93bn, +9%). However, exports fell slightly (–5.1% to $53bn) and FDI plunged by 42% to $1.08bn. While 2024 ended on a high, 2025 begins with renewed pressure on the naira due to softer oil prices and cautious investor sentiment.
Nigerians reportedly lose over ₦1 trillion to CBEX: In April 2025, CBEX Wealth Chasers, a cryptocurrency investment platform, abruptly ceased operations, leaving numerous Nigerian investors unable to access their funds. The platform had attracted users with promises of high returns through AI-driven crypto trading. However, its sudden shutdown and the disappearance of its operators have raised concerns about the safety of investor funds. The Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has clarified that it does not cover losses from unregulated investment schemes like CBEX.
This situation underscores the risks associated with investing in platforms outside the purview of regulatory oversight. In response to the growing prevalence of such schemes, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has intensified efforts to crack down on unregistered digital investment platforms. The SEC warns that operators of such platforms could face up to 10 years in prison, emphasizing the importance of investor vigilance and due diligence.
NDIC Commences ₦46.6 Billion Liquidation Dividend Payments to Heritage Bank Depositors: In April 2025, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) initiated the disbursement of ₦46.6 billion in liquidation dividends to depositors of the defunct Heritage Bank. This first tranche, paid on April 25, 2025, represents a 9.2 kobo per naira payout to uninsured depositors, following the revocation of Heritage Bank’s license by the Central Bank of Nigeria in June 2024. The NDIC has made significant progress in asset realization and debt recovery, enabling this initial payment.
The corporation emphasized that depositors with balances exceeding the insured limit of ₦5 million will receive payments on a pro-rata basis, in accordance with Section 72 of the NDIC Act 2023. Depositors are encouraged to verify their account details and resolve any discrepancies to facilitate prompt payment. The NDIC has assured the public of its commitment to protecting depositors’ funds and maintaining stability in the banking sector.
FMITI launched the Digital Trade Services Survey: In April 2025, the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment (FMITI) launched the Digital Trade Services Survey to bolster Nigeria’s digital service providers’ expansion across Africa under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). This initiative aims to identify and support startups offering cross-border solutions, facilitating their growth and integration into the continental market. Startups are encouraged to participate in the survey to inform policy decisions and support the growth of Nigeria’s digital economy. The survey can be accessed through the official FMITI website or directly via the Digital Trade Services Survey.
Finance Flashback
Good news all around Broad street
CBN tightens control of OMO: The CBN maintained tight control of liquidity through Open Market Operations. In late April, it sold ₦804.85 billion in OMO bills, which were heavily oversubscribed (111% subscription). This aggressive mop-up signals the CBN’s intent to curb excess Naira liquidity – part of efforts to rein in inflation and stabilize the currency. Market interest rates have remained elevated as a result, with interbank rates often in double digits. Despite this, credit to the private sector has grown modestly, supported by targeted lending programs in agriculture and SMEs.
It’s raining profit on Broad street: Nigerian banks reported robust earnings for Q1 2025, reflecting higher interest income and FX gains. UBA posted a pre-tax profit of ₦204.3 billion, up 30.6% year-on-year. Stanbic IBTC saw pre-tax profits jump 85.6% YoY to ₦116.4 billion, on a 7% asset growth to ₦7.3 trillion. Many top-tier banks (GTCO, Zenith, Access, Fidelity) also recorded double-digit profit growth, buoyed by high yields on government securities and revaluation gains. Investors have responded positively – banking sector stocks rallied over 6% year-to-date on the NGX after these strong results.
CBN issues new guidelines on PAPSS: The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) issued new guidelines to boost intra-African trade payments via the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS). Effective April 28, banks can now source FX for PAPSS transactions directly from the market (without CBN approval), and documentation requirements were simplified for low-value transactions (up to $2,000 for individuals, $5,000 for firms). Export proceeds via PAPSS must be certified by banks to ensure compliance. These policies aim to streamline cross-border payments under AfCFTA and improve liquidity and speed for Nigerian businesses trading across Africa.
NGX Performance
The Nigerian stock market posted modest gains in April.
The benchmark All-Share Index (ASI) ended the month around 105,931 points, up roughly +0.4% from end-March. The ASI saw mid-month volatility – dipping to ~104,200 before recovering – but ultimately extended its year-to-date gain to +2.9%. Market momentum was buoyed in the final week by bank earnings and easing inflation fears. The sector trend was mixed.
Consumer Goods stocks led the rally, with the NGX Consumer Goods Index up nearly +9% in April (and +18.1% YTD) as investors bet on rebounding consumer demand. Banking stocks also outperformed – the NGX Banking Index gained about +6% in April, bringing YTD gains to +6.9%, after strong profit releases. In contrast, Oil & Gas/Energy equities lagged; the energy sector fell ~7.8% over the month amid lower oil output. Insurance stocks were underwhelming as well (sector down — 6.9% YTD), though they saw a mild bounce late in the month.
Top Gainers/Losers: Trading was vibrant with pockets of extreme moves. Mutual Benefits Assurance surged +56% in one week mid-Aprilon positive results, and Cadbury Nigeria jumped nearly 10% in a single session after a strong sales report. On the losing side, Africa Prudential Plc saw a one-off –60% plunge in a week (attributed to a special dividend and stock adjustment).
Generally, blue chips were steadier: bellwether GTCO leapt +18% in one week post-earnings, while Livestock Feeds Plc fell about 9% on profit-taking Market breadth was positive overall, with roughly 33 gainers to 20 losers in an average trading session. Liquidity was robust – daily turnover frequently exceeded ₦30–35 billion in April – indicating solid investor participation.
Investment Opportunities
- Kenya announced plans to issue a new infrastructure bond in Q2, targeting ~KSh 75 billion, to fund roads and energy projects.
- African Development Bank launched a $500 million “Food Security” bond program, with the first tranche in April, to channel investment into agricultural value chains across member countries. These bonds present options for institutional investors seeking exposure to African sovereign and supranational debt with developmental impact.
FX Performance
Major currencies record mixed experiences driven by local context
In Q1 2025, Nigeria’s foreign exchange market experienced notable improvements, driven by policy reforms, renewed investor confidence, and increased transparency. The official exchange rate averaged ₦1,521.78/USD, slightly above the ₦1,500/USD budget benchmark. This represents a controlled depreciation from ₦1,562.72/USD in December 2024 and signals measured progress in stabilizing the naira.
By the end of March 2025, the exchange rate stood at ₦1,526.27/USD, while by April, it hovered near ₦1,600/USD. Although this marks a 7.9% year-on-year depreciation from ₦1,511.4/USD in April 2024, it remains relatively modest given global economic headwinds and volatile emerging market conditions.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) played a pivotal role in managing volatility through targeted interventions—including a $200 million FX injection—and structural reforms such as the Electronic Foreign Exchange Market System (EFEMS). EFEMS enhanced liquidity, transparency, and market efficiency, reinforcing confidence among foreign and domestic investors.
April FX Performance: Relative Naira Stability
In April, the naira stabilized following earlier volatility. After briefly weakening to ₦1,630/USD early in the month, CBN’s strategic actions, including selling FX reserves and tightening naira liquidity, helped the currency appreciate back to ₦1,590–₦1,600/USD by mid-April. The parallel market stayed close, around ₦1,610/USD, showing reduced arbitrage.
Compared to January’s average of ₦1,530/USD, the naira depreciated about 4–5% year-to-date. Still, this reflects improved FX management compared to the sharp swings observed in 2024.
FX Market Confidence and Policy Outlook
The CBN opted to maintain elevated monetary policy rates throughout Q1, resisting rate cuts despite a deceleration in inflation. This stance was aimed at curbing FX-driven inflationary pressures, anchoring the naira, and preserving foreign reserves. Meanwhile, the launch of FX market codes and tighter regulations enhanced compliance and price discovery.
A highlight of Q1 was the robust recovery in Nigeria’s foreign reserves. Net Foreign Exchange Reserves (NFER) surged 479.2% year-on-year, reaching $23.11 billion in December 2024, aided by better non-oil revenue and reduced short-term FX liabilities. Gross reserves climbed to $38.3 billion by March 2025, up from $33.8 billion a year earlier, providing a stronger buffer against external shocks.
However, risks persist: the delayed renewal of the naira-to-crude deal, new U.S. tariffs under President Trump, and potential expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) threaten Nigeria’s export earnings and could tighten FX supply.
FX Performance Across Africa: Mixed Trends
Nigeria’s FX performance contrasts with mixed movements across other African currencies in April:
Kenyan Shilling (KES): The shilling remained broadly stable, ending April at KSh 129.4/USD, nearly unchanged from March. Kenya’s FX market showed relative calm as the country managed its external financing needs cautiously.
Ghanaian Cedi (GHS): Benefiting from IMF-backed reforms, active central bank management, and improved reserves (up to $9.3 billion), the cedi appreciated by ~2.5% in April, strengthening from GH₵16.00 to GH₵15.58/USD. Inflation has eased to ~45%, supporting investor sentiment and FX stability.
Zambian Kwacha (ZMW): While the kwacha recorded a marginal gain—appreciating from K29.0 to K28.7/USD in April—it remains under pressure, having lost over 30% year-on-year. Despite external debt restructuring efforts, demand for dollars continues to exceed supply. Inflation hovers around 12%, and the currency’s outlook hinges on additional IMF disbursements and copper export performance.
Summary Table – Apr 2025 FX Moves:
| Currency (per USD) | End-Mar 2025 | End-Apr 2025 | April Change |
| Nigerian Naira (NGN) | ~₦1,630 | ~₦1,600 | +1.8% (Naira appreciated) |
| Ghanaian Cedi (GHS) | ~GH₵16.00 | ~GH₵15.58 | +2.5% (Cedi appreciated) |
| Zambian Kwacha (ZMW) | K29.0 (approx) | K28.7 | +1.0% (Kwacha slight gain) |
| Kenyan Shilling (KES) | KSh 129.3 | KSh 129.4 | ~0% (Shilling stable) |
FX Volatility and Strategic Recommendations
Despite the improvements in FX market stability in Q1 2025, underlying risks remain. Analysts caution that while rate cuts are unlikely in Q2, a more dovish stance may emerge in the second half of the year if inflation continues to moderate and global conditions stabilize.
To navigate the evolving FX landscape, businesses and policymakers should:
- Diversify funding sources through equity or development finance instruments to reduce reliance on FX-denominated loans.
- Renegotiate supply contracts in local currency to manage exposure and price risks.
- Support local sourcing to limit dependence on imported inputs and protect margins against exchange rate fluctuations.
- Strengthen formal remittance channels, especially from key markets like the U.S., to bolster FX inflows.
- Maintain transparent FX policy communication to reduce market speculation and improve business predictability.
- Preserve external reserves prudently, avoiding over-intervention while providing targeted support during liquidity crunches.
Company Focus – OMNIRetail
Founded in 2019, OmniRetail is a fast-growing B2B e-commerce platform transforming informal retail supply chains in West Africa. The company connects major FMCG manufacturers and distributors with tens of thousands of neighbourhood shops (mom-and-pop retailers), enabling those small retailers to order inventory via OmniRetail’s app for quick delivery.
OmniRetail’s model leverages an asset-light, tech-driven approach– digitising order management for over 145 manufacturers and 5,800 distributors, and servicing 150,000+ small retailers across 12 cities in Nigeria, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire. The company also offers embedded finance: its “OmniPay” service provides buy-now-pay-later credit to shops to purchase stock, disbursing ~₦19 billion ($12 million) monthly inventory loans.
The company has achieved profitability through this integrated commerce and lending model. In April 2025, OmniRetail made news following its $20 million Series A raise, led by Norfund (Norway’s dev finance institution). The funding, which brings OmniRetail’s total raise to $38 million since inception, will fuel expansion across West Africa and deepen its fintech offerings. OmniRetail plans to enter new markets (scaling further in Ghana and the Ivory Coast) and add product categories such as personal care and cold-chain products. It also recently acquired a payments startup to bolster its platform’s payment processing capabilities.
OmniRetail’s success (it processed ₦1.3 trillion in transactions last year) highlights the massive opportunity in Africa’s informal retail. By securing significant investment and showing a sustainable business model, OmniRetail is poised to become a regional leader, improving how corner stores stock inventory and access credit. The April funding news spotlighted OmniRetail as one of Africa’s rising stars in e-commerce and fintech, with global investors endorsing its vision to modernise informal trade.
Africa Focus
Global headwinds threaten growth amid persistent local challenges, while Africa takes one step closer to continental free trade
IMF Lowers Africa Growth Outlook: At the IMF Spring Meetings, officials cautioned that Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth is slowing amid global headwinds. The IMF’s April Regional Outlook now projects SSA growth at 3.8% in 2025, down from 4.1% forecasted earlier. This downgrade is due to softer demand from major economies, high debt servicing costs, and commodity price volatility.
Many African countries are grappling with tighter financial conditions – interest rates have risen to tackle inflation, and several currencies have depreciated (on average, SSA currencies are down ~8% against the USD over the past year). On a positive note, regional inflation is expected to gradually ease in 2025 from recent highs, as food prices stabilise and monetary tightening takes effect. The IMF urged African nations to press on with reforms: mobilise domestic revenue, manage debt prudently, and diversify exports, to boost resilience against shocks.
South Africa’s Energy Woes Pressure Growth: Africa’s most industrialised economy, South Africa, continued to struggle with power outages in April. State utility Eskom maintained “Stage 6” load-shedding (rolling blackouts of up to 8–10 hours per day in some areas) due to plant breakdowns and approaching winter demand. This energy crisis is crippling output – the SARB estimated it may shave ~2 percentage points off GDP growth. Indeed, the World Bank now projects South Africa to grow only 0.8% in 2025, one of the slowest in Africa, citing electricity constraints and logistics bottlenecks.
The government has set up a new ministry to tackle electricity reforms and fast-tracked approvals for independent power producers in April, hoping to ease outages by year-end. Business confidence in South Africa hit a 5-month low in April amid the power cuts and logistical issues at ports. On the upside, commodity export prices (platinum, gold) have been relatively robust, providing some export revenue support. Investors are watching whether reforms announced by President Ramaphosa, such as unbundling Eskom and incentivising private energy investment, gain traction in the coming months.
AfCFTA launches PAPSS: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) launched a pilot cross-border payments system linking banks in Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, and Zambia to facilitate trade in local currencies (leveraging PAPSS, as noted earlier). The African Union reported that under Afcfta’s pilot trade scheme, dozens of shipments of goods moved tariff-free between participating countries in Q1, and in May the AU will review results to plan broader implementation.
Additionally, the African Union formally admitted Zimbabwe into the African Trade Insurance Agency in April – a move that could help Zimbabwe access trade credit and investment insurance, which is vital as it tries to rebuild investor confidence..
Upcoming events in May
- 3i Africa Summit
Dates: May 14–16, 2025
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
Focus: Investment opportunities and economic development in Africa. - Smart Banking Summit
Dates: May 21–22, 2025
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
Focus: Innovations in banking and financial services in Africa. - BAFT Africa Bank to Bank Forum
Date: May 22, 2025
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
Focus: Transaction banking and trade finance in Africa. - UNEP FI Regional Roundtable
Dates: May 6–7, 2025
Location: Marrakech, Morocco
Focus: Sustainable finance and environmental considerations in Africa and the Middle East.
