Welcome to the June 2025 edition of the Duplo Economic Digest — your snapshot of Nigeria’s fast-moving financial landscape.
From new tax laws and CBN compliance crackdowns to rising fuel prices and cross-border innovations, June was a wake-up call for finance leaders to stay agile, compliant, and forward-thinking. Let’s dive in!

Nigeria Macroeconomic Recap

Petrol prices threaten to worsen business costs, but Dangote has a plan to save the day…again

Tinubu signs new tax laws: President Bola Tinubu has signed four finance bills into law as part of sweeping reforms to restructure Nigeria’s tax system. The new rules aim to simplify revenue collection, reduce the tax burden on individuals and businesses, and make tax administration more efficient, ultimately boosting government revenue. The four bills—Nigeria Tax Bill (Ease of Doing Business), Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill—were passed by the National Assembly after extensive consultations with stakeholders. President Tinubu said these reforms will “protect low-income households and support workers by expanding their disposable income.” The signing marks a significant milestone in his administration’s efforts to improve the business climate and attract domestic and foreign investment.

One of the most notable changes is the redefiniition of company size thresholds.  he revenue benchmark for qualifying as a small business has been raised, providing relief for more enterprises, while the category of medium-sized businesses has been eliminated altogether. This move simplifies classification but may also push some businesses into the large company bracket, subjecting them to stricter tax obligations. In addition, businesses will now be able to recover VAT paid on all purchases, including services, through their VAT filings. Also, the laws streamline tax compliance,with the introduction of a unified 4% development levy, reducing the administrative burden on companies. 

Personal income tax rates have also been revised, with individuals earning below the minimum wage now exempt from taxation. On the other hand, high-net-worth individuals earning around ₦50 million or more annually may see their tax rates rise progressively, a move that could impact executive compensation and high-end consumer spending. Large corporations, particularly those with turnover above ₦20 billion, face new accountability measures. If their effective tax rate (ETR) falls below 15%, they will be required to pay a top-up tax to bridge the gap.

Technology will play a central role in the new tax era. Tools such as VAT fiscalisation, e-invoicing, and a National Single Window platform will be used to digitize tax compliance and improve visibility into taxpayer transactions. While this promises greater efficiency and fewer loopholes, it will also require significant investments by businesses in digital infrastructure and compliance systems.

Dangote announces nationwide petrol and diesel distribution: The Dangote Refinery has announced plans to launch a nationwide fuel distribution initiative starting August 15, 2025, to deliver Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and diesel across Nigeria using 4,000 brand-new CNG-powered tankers. The initiative includes free logistics support for marketers, petrol dealers, manufacturers, telecom firms, aviation companies, and other large-scale users. As part of the rollout, the refinery will establish over 100 CNG booster stations nationwide and offer credit facilities to bulk buyers, enabling them to access an additional 500,000 litres of fuel on credit (secured by a bank guarantee) for every 500,000 litres purchased. The initiative is expected to lower fuel prices, ease inflation, and reduce operational costs for key sectors like manufacturing and telecommunications, providing broad economic relief and improving fuel access nationwide.

FG recapitalises BoA with ₦1.5 trillion: The Federal Government of Nigeria has invested over ₦200 billion in agricultural interventions and recapitalised the Bank of Agriculture with ₦1.5 trillion to boost food security and empower farmers. This was disclosed by the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Senator Abubakar Kyari, during a high-level engagement in Abuja. Kyari reaffirmed Nigeria’s leadership in regional food systems transformation, citing initiatives like distributing 2.15 million bags of fertiliser, developing a national farmer registry targeting over 42 million households, and efforts focused on mechanisation, youth inclusion, and food sovereignty. The recapitalisation signals a significant shift toward treating agriculture as an investable, growth-oriented sector. For agro-processors and SMEs in the agricultural value chain, it offers expanded access to affordable credit and mechanisation support, which is key for scaling operations. However, the bank’s success will largely depend on its independence from the government and the implementation of its operations.

Petrol prices increase upwards of ₦915/litre: The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has raised petrol prices to ₦915 per litre in Lagos and Abuja—a 5.17% increase from March 2025 prices of around ₦870. The hike follows a depot price increase by Dangote Refinery, driven by rising global crude prices. Geopolitical tensions, especially between Iran and Israel, contributed to oil price volatility, leading to a hike in global crude oil prices. Other marketers, including MRS Oil, have also raised prices to  ₦955 in the Southeast, ₦935 in Southwestern states, ₦945 in the Northwest and North Central, and ₦955 in the Northeast, in response to global trends.

The petrol price hike has tightened the financial squeeze on Nigerian businesses, driving up operating and logistics costs. However, this pressure may be short-lived, as global crude oil prices have recently declined to around $65–$68 per barrel, down from highs of $75. This drop follows the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which eased earlier supply concerns. If this trend continues—and the naira remains relatively stable—local petrol prices could ease in the coming weeks, offering businesses some much-needed relief.

SEC introduces new governance rules: The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has introduced new governance rules to strengthen oversight and prevent power concentration in Nigerian public companies. One of these rules is implementing a compulsory three-year cooling-off period for CEOs transitioning to Chairman roles within the same company. Also, a ban on Independent Non-Executive Directors (INEDs) moving into executive roles within the same company or group, and tenure limits of 10 years for CEOs and 12 years within a group, with former CEOs who become Chairmen limited to a 4-year term. These reforms aim to promote board independence, prevent long-term entrenchment, and align Nigerian corporate governance with international best practices. While they are expected to improve transparency, accountability, and investor confidence, they may also disrupt leadership continuity and reduce the talent pool for executive roles. Public companies are required to comply immediately and adjust succession plans accordingly.

Finance Flashback

CBN aims for bank investors’ bag but for good reason, as Access Bank widens its net in Tanzania 

CBN introduces a strict forbearance policy: The Central Bank of Nigeria has introduced a strict forbearance policy targeting banks with regulatory breaches in credit exposure and Single Obligor Limits. Affected banks, including Zenith Bank, Access Holdings, First Bank, UBA, FCMB, and Fidelity, must suspend dividend payments, defer executive bonuses, and halt foreign investments. The goal is to reinforce capital buffers, improve balance sheet resilience, and ensure prudent risk management amid ongoing economic pressures. These measures are temporary but signal a shift toward tighter oversight and more conservative banking practices. Banks must fully provision for risky loans, retain earnings, and complete recapitalisation—many aiming to exit forbearance by June 30, 2025. For investors, this means reduced short-term returns through dividend suspensions but potentially stronger, more stable banks in the long run. The policy underscores the importance of capital strength and may shift investor focus toward institutions with cleaner books and stronger governance.

Access Bank acquires Standard Chartered operations in Tanzania: Access Bank has acquired Standard Chartered’s Consumer, Private, and Business Banking operations in Tanzania, marking a strategic expansion to deepen financial inclusion and digital banking across East Africa. Standard Chartered is exiting several African markets to focus on its wealth management business. The announcement comes amid regulatory pressure in Nigeria, where the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently barred banks under regulatory forbearance from foreign acquisitions.

However, Access Holdings stated it plans to exit this forbearance by June 30, 2025, having already met the new ₦500 billion capital requirement. Access assured stakeholders that the deal was initiated before the CBN’s new directive, and its share price has since risen slightly to ₦22.4. Access Bank’s acquisition sends a clear message: Nigerian banks can still lead bold regional expansions if they are well-capitalised and strategically prepared. It reinforces Nigeria’s role as a continental financial hub and signals that regulatory compliance is now a prerequisite for growth. For the wider market, it’s a reminder that ambition must be matched with discipline.

NIBSS launches the National Payment Stack: The Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) has launched the National Payment Stack (NPS), a next-generation digital payment platform designed to transform instant payments in Nigeria. The platform is aimed at deepening financial inclusion, supporting government revenue and social intervention payments, by introducing advanced features like real-time settlements, bulk/single payments on one rail, ISO 20022 messaging, Request-to-Pay, multi-currency support, and improved fraud management. The NPS helps modernize Nigeria’s financial backbone, tackling major bottlenecks like slow settlements, fragmented systems, and limited cross-border capabilities

NGX Performance

NGX records a bullish run in June 

The Nigerian stock market extended its bullish momentum through June 2025. The benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) climbed from roughly 111,742 points at the end of May to nearly 120,000 by late June.. This represents an approximate 6–7% monthly gain, pushing the index to multi-year highs. By June 24, the ASI closed at 119,790.82 points – up 1.02% that day, marking a year-to-date (YTD) return of about 16.3%. Market capitalization rose in tandem, reaching about ₦75.5 trillion by late June (up from ₦74.5 trillion mid-month), reflecting the broad price appreciation across the stock market. Investor sentiment remained strongly positive throughout June.

The market recorded four consecutive weekly gains, with the ASI advancing every week of the month. Trading activity was robust: weekly share volumes frequently exceeded 2–3 billion shares, an apparent uptick in participation compared to earlier months. Market breadth was also healthy, as advancing stocks outnumbered decliners in most sessions – for example, on June 24, 61 stocks gained vs. 22 declined, signaling broad-based buying interest. Overall, June 2025 was characterized by bullish sentiment and higher liquidity, as the Nigerian market continued to build on the substantial gains from earlier in the year.

Investment Opportunities

• United Capital Plc has launched two new CFA franc-denominated mutual funds—UCAMWAL Bond Fund and UCAMWAL Diversified Fund—through its newly established subsidiary, United Capital Asset Management West Africa Ltd (UCAMWAL), based in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. This marks the company’s official entry into the WAEMU region (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo), as part of its pan-African expansion strategy.  Investors in the WAEMU region can subscribe to these mutual funds via www.unitedcapitalplcgroup.com/ucamwal
  • Short-term debt paper 
  • No fixed minimum or maximum offering size 
• Coronation Bank introduced the Coronation Dollar Fund, a professionally managed, open-ended mutual fund that allows investors to earn returns in US dollars and hedge against naira volatility. It invests primarily in dollar-denominated assets such as Eurobonds (70%–90%), money market instruments (10%–30%), with smaller allocations to equities, other dollar funds, and cash for liquidity and diversification. As an open-ended fund, investors can subscribe, add to their investment, or redeem at any time (subject to the holding period).  To invest, individuals or corporates fill out an investment account opening form and provide required documentation. Other information includes:

FX Performance

A win on both sides

Naira appreciated moderately in June 2025

The Nigerian naira strengthened modestly against the US dollar in June 2025 on the official market. It opened the month at about ₦1,582 per $1 and closed around the mid-₦1,540s–₦1,550 by month-end – roughly a 2% appreciation of the naira (2% decline in the USD/NGN rate) throughout June. This reversed part of the naira’s earlier losses and reflected relative stability, although the rate fluctuated significantly during the month. A mix of policy measures and market forces shaped the naira’s June performance. CBN’s actions – such as dollar injections to clear backlogs and tightening liquidity via OMO bills – lent support to the naira.

The expiration of BDC recapitalization deadlines and restrictions on certain import FX access helped temper parallel-market demand early in the month. Additionally, an improving inflation outlook and rising crude oil prices (above $75/barrel by late June) provided fundamental support. However, persistent FX demand from importers and others kept the naira under pressure, preventing a larger appreciation. By unifying the exchange windows and allowing a market-determined rate (a reform begun in 2023), the CBN maintained the naira in a managed float, resulting in the observed fluctuations but averting any extreme devaluation in June.

Zambia’s Kwacha emerges as Africa’s second-best-performing currency. 

Throughout June 2025, the Zambian kwacha strengthened significantly against the US dollar, with the exchange rate falling from around K26.8 per $1 at the start of June to about K23.3 per $1 by late June; an appreciation of roughly 13%–14% in the kwacha’s value. In fact, by June 23 the kwacha reached its strongest level of the year, with USD/ZMW around 23.22 (i.e. only K23.22 per $1). This was the lowest USD/ZMW rate observed in 2025 up to that point, reflecting a major rally of the kwacha.  The kwacha’s rally in June was driven by improved dollar supply and reduced demand in the local market.

For example, mid-year tax payments due in June meant Zambian companies had to convert USD to ZMW, flooding the market with dollars. The Bank of Zambia also indicated lower import bills (e.g. cheaper fuel) eased demand for foreign exchange, contributing to the kwacha’s gains. Improved sentiment from progress on Zambia’s debt restructuring may have further bolstered the currency. Internationally, the U.S. dollar was slightly softer in early June, which also supported emerging-market currencies. By mid-June, Bloomberg reported that the Zambian kwacha was Africa’s second-best-performing currency up about 8% against the dollar in June (leading all African currencies over that period).

Company Focus – PaidHR

Proof of concept for solving Nigeria’s  HR woes.

PaidHR is a Nigerian human resources (HR) technology startup, founded in 2020 by Seye Bandele and Lekan Omotosho, with a mission to modernize HR and payroll management for African businesses. The platform automates payroll, including cross-border payments in 49 currencies, and provides tools for HR data management, compliance, performance tracking, and employee benefits administration. The company’s services are tailored for African small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), especially in sectors like logistics, retail, manufacturing, and banking.

PaidHR has expanded beyond Nigeria to Kenya and South Africa, serving nearly 300 businesses and processing substantial payroll volumes. The company processed over ₦29 billion in salaries by the end of 2024. PaidHR became prominent in June 2025, primarily due to its successful closure of a $1.8 million seed funding round led by Accion Venture Lab, with participation from existing investors Zrosk, Chui Ventures, and Zedcrest Capital. This brings its total funding to $2.9 million and marks a pivotal moment for the company’s growth and visibility. The June 2025 funding round enables PaidHR to accelerate product development, expand its team, and deepen its market presence across Africa, positioning it as a leading HR tech platform. 

With an initial investment target of $1.5 million, the funding round was oversubscribed, demonstrating the capability of Nigerian investors like Zedcrest to mobilise meaningful capital for early-stage startups in Nigeria.  

Africa Focus

Global events are overshadowing a lot of significant developments across the continent.

Much action in DRC going unnoticed. 

Two significant developments in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are unfolding amid global distraction from the Middle East crisis. First, the DRC extended its ban on cobalt exports for another three months, pushing up prices and aiming to boost government revenues. Second, it is nearing a US-brokered peace deal with Rwanda to end decades of conflict and unlock regional mining and infrastructure investment. President Tshisekedi hopes the export ban and the peace deal will stabilize the region and attract foreign capital, especially from the US. However, deep mistrust of Rwanda remains, and Western investors may hesitate due to ongoing volatility. Additionally, there’s uncertainty around the DRC’s long-term strategy to benefit from its cobalt resources, especially if high prices push battery makers to seek alternatives. The DRC stands at a turning point, but significant risks remain. The DRC’s move to assert control over cobalt exports is part of a broader African trend where resource-rich countries seek to capture more value from their natural resources.  Governments across the continent may increasingly use policy tools—like export bans, joint venture requirements, or beneficiation policies—to extract more value locally. This could influence how African nations negotiate mining or energy deals going forward.

Kenyans take to the streets…this time to fight police brutality.

Kenyans take ti the streets again one year since the deadly demonstrations against the 2024 Finance Bill. The protest, described by organisers as a “memorial march,” is both a remembrance of those killed and a renewed call for justice and accountability. The 2024 protests, which resulted in the deaths of at least 60 people and the abduction of 80 others, were triggered by the passing of a controversial tax-heavy bill. Now, a year later, tensions remain high. Schools have closed early, streets are quiet, and businesses are shutting down in anticipation of possible unrest. This new wave of protest is being fuelled by several unresolved grievances. At the top of the list is a revised 2025 Finance Bill, which reintroduces unpopular levies on essential goods like bread and internet data, suggesting to many that the government has ignored the core issues that sparked last year’s protests. Adding to the frustration are recent incidents of police brutality, including the death of a teacher in custody and the shooting of a street hawker, which have further eroded trust in state institutions. Despite government warnings against public demonstrations and allegations of state-backed thugs being deployed to disrupt protests, thousands are expected to march in cities like Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, and Eldoret. With cities like Nairobi and Mombasa on edge, many businesses have already closed temporarily or scaled back operations in anticipation of unrest. Companies in Kenya must activate risk mitigation plans—reassess insurance coverage, safeguard staff, and stay agile in case of escalation.

Egyptian pyramids get a $30 million facelift

Egypt has launched a major $30 million renovation project to revitalize the iconic Pyramids of Giza, one of the world’s most famous archaeological sites. The facelift includes extensive restoration work, improved visitor facilities, and enhanced infrastructure to boost tourism and preserve the ancient monuments. The renovation work is expected to be completed in phases over the next few years. This initiative reflects Egypt’s ongoing efforts to balance heritage conservation with economic development, ensuring that the Pyramids of Giza remain a world-class attraction for future generations.

Africa takes sovereign ratings into its hands. 

A new Africa-led credit rating agency, the African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA), is set to launch operations by September 2025, aiming to provide an alternative to dominant global agencies like Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P. AfCRA responds to long-standing African criticism that international agencies unfairly assess the continent’s credit risks, contributing to high borrowing costs and defaults—as seen in countries like Ghana and Zambia. The agency plans to issue its first sovereign rating by late 2025 or early 2026 and will focus on local-currency debt ratings to strengthen domestic capital markets. Importantly, AfCRA will be independent and privately owned by African entities to prevent political interference. Unfortunately, the launch of AfCRA does not immediately mean that African sovereigns will be able to deepen its access to the deep pockets of foreign capital markets and multilaterals. However, it could improve African countries’ reputations in the global credit system, help them tap local capital more affordably, and push for fairer treatment in international markets.

Upcoming events in June 2025 

• Digital Finance Africa 
  3 July 202
  Sandton, South Africa

• Finance Crime Conference 2025 
  17 July, 2025
  Midrand, South Africa 

QUIZ

• What was Africa’s second-best-performing currency of June 2025?
• What’s the value of salaries that PaidHR processed as of the end of  2024?